In some way, it should be obvious how technology can fundamentally transform the world. Just look at how much the world has changed already. If you could invite a family of hunter-gatherers from 20,000 years ago on your next flight, they would be pretty surprised. Since technology has already altered our world, we ought to anticipate that it will do so once more. However, despite the fact that the world has changed in the past, these changes have occurred over generations. What is different now is how very rapid these technological changes have become. In the past, the technologies that our ancestors used when they were young still played an important role in their daily lives when they were older. In recent generations, this has not been the case. Instead, it is now common for technologies that were unheard of in one's youth to become commonplace in later life. The first reason we might not take the possibility seriously is that it is easy to undervalue how quickly technology can change the world. The second reason why it is difficult to take seriously the idea of transformative AI—possibly even AI that is as intelligent as humans—is that we first heard about it in movies. It is not surprising that for many of us, the first reaction to a scenario in which machines have human-like capabilities is the same as if you had asked us to take seriously a future in which vampires, werewolves, or zombies roam the planet.1
But, it is plausible that it is both the stuff of sci-fi fantasy and the central invention that could arrive in our, or our children’s, lifetimes.
The failure to recognize that powerful AI could result in very significant changes is the third reason why it is difficult to take this possibility seriously. Also understandable is this. It is difficult to form an idea of a future that is very different from our own time. There are two concepts that I find helpful in imagining a very different future with artificial intelligence. Let's take a look at them both.
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